With its 2011 “Low Carbon Roadmap” (European Commission, 2011a), the European Union has committed itself to establish a low-carbon economy up to 2050. Starting with 1990 as base year, the roadmap shows a pathway towards an 80% reduction in domestic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050. This reduction is considered necessary to keep global temperatures from rising more than 2°C and avoid serious negative effects of climate change (e.g. Schellnhuber et al., 2006; EG Science, 2008). Furthermore, in February 2012 the EU launched a strategy for “A Bioeconomy for Europe” (European Commission, 2012), which aims at driving the transition from a fossil-based economy to a sustainable bioeconomy1. This strategy addresses crucial societal challenges such as food security, natural resource scarcity, dependence on fossil resources, climate change and sustainable economic growth.
Biomass will be of crucial importance for reducing GHG emissions and the dependence on fossil resources; not only in energy supply, as the EU’s “Energy Roadmap 2050” (European Commission, 2011b) and the National Renewable Energy Action Plans (see Beurskens et al., 2011) indicate, but also with regard to carbon-intensive products (i.e. products originating from fossil resources as well as such with high embedded fossil energy). Already today forestry and the wood processing industries are key elements of Austria’s economy. Biomass is currently the most important renewable energy source (Statistik Austria, 2013a) and is usually considered to be of high importance for the establishment of a sustainable energy system (see Streicher et al., 2010, for example). However, despite efforts to avoid competition with food production and land-use change (for example by promoting cascadic uses of biomass and focussing on energy generation from wastes and residues, and according sustainability criteria, respectively) increasing biomass demand for energy and materials might put food security at risk and compromise environmental
1 The bioeconomy […] encompasses the production of renewable biological resources and the conversion of these resources and waste streams into value added products, such as food, feed, bio-based products and bioenergy (European Commission, 2012).
sustainability. A transformation towards a bioeconomy is likely to increase pressure on land, might promote land use change and result in environmentally harmful intensification of agriculture, possibly resulting in an increase in non-energy related GHG emissions and a decline of carbon stocks. As a consequence, the positive effects of a substitution of fossil resources with biomass might be offset (at least partially) by indirect GHG emissions.
Other issues to be considered are embedded GHG emissions of imported products and materials, and carbon leakage2. If national or EU-wide mitigation targets are pursued without adequate consideration of this mechanism, the net effect of climate policies might fall considerably short of what was intended, as carbon-intensive economic activities are likely to be “exported” to other countries. In order to avoid carbon leakage during transformation, the substitution of carbon-intensive products with such of domestic, biogenic origin is required. Hence, the question of how domestic biomass resources can be utilized (for food, feed, material and energy) in a most efficient way and without compromising food security and environmental sustainability is of paramount importance.
At the same time, climate change is expected to affect biomass supply from forestry and agriculture in numerous ways. With an increasing reliance on biomass as primary resource, adaptation to climate change and measures to alleviate the vulnerability of the economic system to its impacts are gaining in importance. The complexity of and interactions between these aspects related to transformation necessitate integrated assessment approaches and scenario development.