Coherent Yield Curve Scenario Generation

01.07.2012 - 30.06.2015
Forschungsförderungsprojekt

There are numerous reasons for extracting the driving factors of yield curve dynamics reflecting the real economic activity.The most important motivation is to forecast basic economic indicators which play a crucial role in monetary policy settings by central banks and the borrowing policy of governments.Therefore, we propose a yield curve generator capable of extracting the state variables driving the dynamics of the default-free and/or defaultable bonds.Our objective is to extend the methodology proposed by Jamshidian and Zhu (1997) in a way that the original state variables are transformed to a new set of state variables via Independent Component Analysis (ICA) instead of Principal Component Analysis . Main advantage of ICA is to extract components that are statistically independent, which makes the generation more efficient.One nice feature of this method is its ability to extract non-Gaussian factors due to the fact that the estimation requires non-Gaussian independent components.

Personen

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Projektmitarbeiter_innen

Institut

Grant funds

  • Österreichische Nationalbank, Jubiläumsfonds (National) Jubilee Fund of the Austrian National Bank Call identifier Wirtschaftswissenschaften

Forschungsschwerpunkte

  • Fundamental Mathematics Research: 60%
  • Mathematical and Algorithmic Foundations: 40%

Schlagwörter

DeutschEnglisch
Modellierung von Zinsstrukturkurven und Erzeugung von Szenarienyield curve modelling and scenario generation
Unabhängige und Hauptkomponentenanalyseindependent and principle component analysis
Arbitragefreiheitno-arbitrage
SimulationenSimulations
Lévy- und Sato-ProzesseLévy and Sato processes
Ökonomische Indikatoreneconomic indicators
Geldpolitikmonetary policy

Publikationen