The Commission Communication “Renewable Energy: a major player in the European energy market”1clearly states the points of departure for a European energy policy: combating climate change, limiting the EU's external vulnerability to imported hydrocarbons, and promoting growth and jobs: “Renewable energy enables us to diversify our energy supply. This increases our security of supply and improves European competitiveness creating new industries, jobs, economic growth and export opportunities, whilst also reducing our greenhouse gas emissions.”
The Energy Roadmap 2050 reaffirms the strong role of renewable energy sources on the way to a low carbon European energy sector by 2050. “Regardless of scenario choice, the biggest share of energy supply in 2050 will come from renewable energy. Strong growth in renewables is the so-called 'no regrets' option. However, despite the strong framework to 2020, the Roadmap suggests that growth of renewable energy will drop after 2020 without further intervention due to their higher costs and barriers compared to fossil fuels. Early policy clarity on the post 2020 regime will generate real benefits for investors in industry and infrastructure as well as for renewable energy investors directly.”
As financial support will still be required for some time due to remaining externalities, it is important to gain further understanding and awareness of the economic and employment benefits from renewables. This is of particular importance in a time where challenging future targets are discussed that need to be distributed among Member States and among sectors. In order to support an objective discussion on the growth and employment effects of enhanced RES deployment a sound scientific basis is needed on the gross effects (direct and indirect) as well as on the net effects (including negative effects like conventional replacement and budget effects).
The core objective of the proposed study is undertaking economic modelling to provide quantitative analysis of the environmental, GHG emissions, security of supply implications, industrial and employment benefits of renewable energy growth in the EU.
Related objectives include for example:
· A business-as-usual scenario and two policy scenarios on the future deployment of renewables in the EU-27 and Croatia up to 2050, and various sensitivity analyses with regard to scenario assumptions and boundary conditions.
· An analysis of direct and indirect gross economic and employment impacts resulting from past and present RES developments for each of the 27 EU member countries and Croatia and each of the RES technologies.
· An understanding of the interrelationship between the energy sector (with distinctions between electricity, heating and cooling and the transport sectors) and the other sectors of the economy.
· An in depth analysis of the future gross and net economic and employment impacts in the EU-27 up to 2050 resulting from the three scenarios stated above based on an experienced, validated and transparent macro-economic modelling approach.
· Use of a modelling system with a sound scientific basis and a high level of transparency that creates full trust in the quality of analysis on growth and employment effects of renewables.
· Facilitating an improved and common understanding on the balance between costs and benefits of (an accelerated growth of) renewables.
