330.228 Risk-based Performance Management
Diese Lehrveranstaltung ist in allen zugeordneten Curricula Teil der STEOP.
Diese Lehrveranstaltung ist in mindestens einem zugeordneten Curriculum Teil der STEOP.

2020W, VU, 2.0h, 3.0EC, wird geblockt abgehalten
TUWEL

Merkmale

  • Semesterwochenstunden: 2.0
  • ECTS: 3.0
  • Typ: VU Vorlesung mit Übung
  • Format der Abhaltung: Distance Learning

Lernergebnisse

Nach positiver Absolvierung der Lehrveranstaltung sind Studierende in der Lage

  • Construct budgetary planning and control systems that are adequate for capturing uncertain business environments
  • Forecast future sales volumes via forecasting tools in R which include auto-correlations and cross-cross correlations to exogenous macro economic variables
  • Understand the ROC forecast methodology and to implement it in R for deriving enterprise business and corresponding growth cycles
  • Assess the prediction accuracy of ROC forecasts with respect to future stock returns
  • Discuss the prediction accuracy in the light of the efficient stock market hypothesis

 

Inhalt der Lehrveranstaltung

In this lecture the focus lies on predictive analytics and closed-loop management control systems in the forecasting and budgeting domain predominantly by 1) setting up adequate budgetary planning and control systems in an uncertain business environment and 2) by forecasting future sales volumes and corresponding ROC forecasts with the Rate-Of-Change (ROC) methodology.

The budgetary planning and control systems is a proactive double closed-loop management control system, where in the planning period annual forecasts and budgets are determined, and in the control phases over the year rolling forecasts are made, plan/forecast deviations are derived and deviation dependent corrective and adaptive actions are selected and implemented.

The ROC methodology allows the detection of a cyclical behavior in form of enterprise business cycles and their underlying growth cycles by considering seasonal changes of moving sales totals.

The forecasting accuracy is determined by regressing ROC forecasts on future stock returns.

Methoden

Imagine, your are hired by a company as an assistant of the chief financial officer (CFO) with three responsibilities: 1) You assist the CFO in setting up an adequate budgetary planning and control system (Management Control System: MCS) in an uncertain business environment. 2) You are in charge of the rolling forecasting tasks where you apply the novel ROC-forecasting methodology. 3) You have to assess the predictive accuracy of ROC-based sales forecasts w.r.t. future stock returns.

In this course you acquire the needed knowledge, skills and competences for performing these tasks by discussing the key concepts according to the scholarly literature, by performing group work in break out sessions, by solving programming problems in the statistics language R and by performing a project assignment as group work.

Prüfungsmodus

Prüfungsimmanent

Vortragende Personen

Institut

LVA Termine

TagZeitDatumOrtBeschreibung
Mi.08:30 - 12:0007.10.2020 (LIVE)Lesson
Mi.08:30 - 12:0014.10.2020 (LIVE)Lesson
Mi.08:30 - 12:0021.10.2020 (LIVE)Lesson
Mi.08:30 - 12:0028.10.2020 (LIVE)Lesson
Mi.08:30 - 12:0004.11.2020 (LIVE)Lesson
Mi.08:30 - 12:0011.11.2020 (LIVE)Lesson
Mi.08:30 - 09:3018.11.2020Bombardier Hörsaal Final term
LVA wird geblockt abgehalten

Leistungsnachweis

  • Proactive preparation of weekly reading assignments
  • Final exam
  • Project assignment

Prüfungen

TagZeitDatumOrtPrüfungsmodusAnmeldefristAnmeldungPrüfung
Mi.09:00 - 10:0024.11.2021 Online - Information in TUWEL!schriftlich06.10.2021 08:00 - 17.11.2021 12:00in TISSRisk-based Performance Management: Final Exam

LVA-Anmeldung

Von Bis Abmeldung bis
16.09.2020 00:00 06.10.2020 23:59 06.10.2020 23:59

Curricula

Literatur

Es wird kein Skriptum zur Lehrveranstaltung angeboten.

Vorkenntnisse

  • Budgetary planning and control systems
  • Proactive double loop management systems
  • Software package R (see R in a nutshell-document)

Vorausgehende Lehrveranstaltungen

Weitere Informationen

  • Anwesenheitspflicht!

Sprache

Englisch